The numbers land almost precisely on the midpoints of the 13 August trading statement guidance (EPS 481.4-507.4c, HEPS 481.3-507.3c). Revenue of R11,159 million is up 42% on R7,878 million in FY2025, driven by a 40% higher average rand gold price received of R2,289,250/kg. Gold sold was essentially flat at 4,865kg. The operating leverage in this business is breathtaking: operating profit of R6,452 million, up 83%. The EBITDA margin is staggering — the tailings-retreatment model delivers a cost base that barely moves while the revenue line soars. That's the whole investment thesis in one sentence.
The dividend is the exclamation point. 120 cents per share final — triple last year's 40c — and the R120c dividend alone represents a 2.7% yield on the R44.65 share price. The balance sheet remains fortress-grade: R2.8 billion in cash, zero bank debt, and R1bn+ in undrawn revolving facilities. Capex surged 57% to R3.5bn to fund the Far West Gold Recoveries expansion, all funded from internal cash flow. The 39.4% ROE, 3.05x P/B, and 9.14x trailing PE look expensive only if you think gold is rolling over. At R44.65, the forward PE of 8.08x suggests the market is still cautious. Rating: BULLISH. DRDGOLD is the purest gold-price leverage on the JSE. The day the rand gold price drops, this stock drops harder. But while gold stays above $3,000 and the rand stays weak, DRDGOLD is a money printer. Follow-up on our 13 August call — the numbers delivered.
Cashbuild is South Africa's largest retailer of building materials and hardware, serving the low-to-middle-income home improvement market. The trading statement for the 52 weeks to June 2026 shows a tale of two numbers. The reported EPS of 765.2-817.4 cents is down 22-27% from last year's 1,042.5 cents — a headline disaster. But the HEPS range of 939.1-991.1 cents is down just 5-10% from 1,040.4 cents. The entire difference is the loss on the disposal of the Malawi subsidiary, which the company had flagged as a non-core exit. The market sold the stock 3.2% to R118.99 anyway — classic headline-driven panic.
The underlying SA business is not thriving, but it's not collapsing either. The Q4 operational update from 23 July showed revenue up 3% with selling inflation of just 1.5% — implying real volume growth. The balance sheet carries manageable debt (D/E 0.84) and the forward PE of 9.42x on expected HEPS of ~R10.00 is reasonable for a defensive retailer with a 60% institutional shareholder base. The R2.45bn market cap is not demanding. The real question is whether the SA consumer — battered by fuel prices, the Middle East conflict's oil spike, and still-high interest rates — can sustain building and renovation spending. Results 2 September will give the full picture. Rating: BEARISH on the headline, but the Malawi-adjusted numbers are less alarming. This is a show-me story. Watch the September results for colour on the SA consumer.
KAP announced the PG Bison/Mto Forestry merger back in October 2025 — a sensible deal to consolidate the Southern Cape's forestry and sawmilling operations into a single, more efficient entity called Cape Forest Products. The original plan was for Safcol to transfer its MTO Forestry shares to a community trust, which would then hold the community's stake in CFP. That hasn't happened. The SENS is diplomatic — 'Safcol has not transferred its shares' — but the subtext is clear: the state's community empowerment machinery is grinding slowly, and the deal can't wait.
The amended structure keeps the deal alive. Safcol will retain a minority 11.32% of MTO Forestry pending the trust's establishment, and PG Bison's subsidiary (PGBSC) will be sold to Cape Pine Investment Holdings instead of merging directly. The end result is the same: PG Bison gets 49% of CFP, Wild Peach gets 51%, and the combined forestry/sawmilling operations achieve scale. The Competition Commission already approved the deal in May 2026, and the Competition authorities have been notified of the amended structure. Effective date: 1 October 2026. This is a follow-up to our 14 August KAP review — the operational turnaround is real (HEPS +82-92%), but the balance sheet is still saddled with goodwill impairments. The forestry merger is a sensible move to extract value from a non-core asset. Rating: NEUTRAL. The deal is progressing, but Safcol's inability to execute on its side of the bargain is a reminder that state-owned entities remain a wildcard in any transaction. Watch for the 1 October effective date.