Ghost Mail highlights NEPI Rockcastle's Lithuanian asset sale as a textbook capital allocation move. The Akropolis shopping centre is being sold for €200m — a 13% premium to the June 2026 valuation — after entering the Baltics in 2018 and repositioning the asset through expansion and a destination shopping experience. The Baltic experiment was a single-asset foray that has now delivered a tidy exit premium. The capital is being redeployed into Central and Eastern Europe (NEPI's core strength) and Spain as an identified growth market. This is consistent management behaviour — focused on core markets, exiting peripherals at good prices. Ghost implicitly endorses the strategy by presenting it without critique. Given NEPI's dominant CEE position and proven capital recycling ability, this is a net positive that strengthens the geographic focus. BULLISH — NEPI's capital allocation discipline continues to create value.
Ghost Mail's Sep 21 dissection of Investec's pre-close update is a masterclass in segmental analysis. Ghost flags the headline: HEPS growth of 4-8% in GBP, running in line with May guidance. But the real story is the divergence between SA and UK. Southern Africa adjusted operating profit is up 6% in local currency (14% in GBP — the ZAR weakness that used to hurt is now helping). UK adjusted operating profit is down 2-6%, with Rathbones a drag. The credit loss ratio tells the same story: SA below 15-35bp (client quality), UK at upper end of 35-55bp. Ghost puts the ROE comparison in context: SA at 18.5-19% vs UK at 12.3-12.7% ROTE. The 350bp sovereign yield gap doesn't explain a 600bp+ ROE advantage. Loan growth 7.7% (SA) vs 4.9% (UK), deposit growth 5.1% vs 0.6%, wealth FUM +10.7% vs Rathbones' +6.2%. Ghost's verdict: 'It's not so bad down here in the sunshine.' BULLISH — Investec's SA franchise is the engine, and it's firing on all cylinders.
Ghost Mail covers the Alexander Forbes restructure with his trademark scepticism. Prudential Financial is exiting emerging markets entirely, selling its 34.39% stake. Alexforbes repurchases 28.69% at R6.75/share (3.4% discount to VWAP — Ghost notes 'this repurchase doesn't seem like too bad a deal for other shareholders'). The rest goes to ARC AF Holdings (African Rainbow Capital) at 77.94%. The problem: Alexforbes needs R2.6bn and only has R540m in cash. The rest is coming from debt. Ghost calls it 'a lot of debt' and flags that financial leverage is going to increase significantly. He also questions whether Alexander Forbes will still be listed in years to come with such a small free float. The R6.75 price is near the 5-year range, so the valuation isn't stretched. NEUTRAL — the fundamental business is fine but the balance sheet restructuring creates uncertainty and the debt load reduces strategic flexibility.