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Posted: 9 February 2010 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Trading

 

More for Platinum share traders.

 

Firstly, see  http://www.tickertalk.co.za/blog.php?user=simonpb&blogentry_id=1717

 

Secondly, in the course on Financials and Announcements (see http://www.tickertalk.co.za/group.php?group_id=184 ), reference was made to the Impala trading tsatement of 1 Feb The attached graph shows how - a) it couldn't have surprised a keen watcher, with Angloplat having given very similar info two weeks before, and b) how each share reacted almost similarly on the day the trading statement appeared on SENS!

 

user_uploads/Ams Imp Jan 10.pdf

 

 

 


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Posted: 12 February 2010 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Trading

 

OMIGSA Value Fund portfolio manager Feroz Basa was asked, according to Chris Blaine of Moneyweb, if he knows anyone that can consistently and profitably trade in the short-term, and says in the Market Review podcast, "I don't know anyone.  If I did know anyone, I would give them my money to do it for me."

 

"But when you look at pictures, when you're trading on technicals, there is lots of momentum involved and it's looking at pictures when things are moving in certain directions.  I still don't fully grasp the whole analysis of technical analysis, but fundamentally, shares traded at certain levels - and obviously, they become over priced and under priced at certain levels - but you need a fundamental analysis of a company, understanding the balance sheet, what assets they have on their balance sheet and what returns they generate on that asset, understanding what management teams are in charge of these assets. Are they on this big expansion drive, are they going to take money off per se, their businesses that they're making good profits and plough it into sub-optimal return businesses, are they going to give that cash back."

 

"I don't know many day traders who actually survive over the longer term - I think more often than not I see that as gambling - you could get lucky if you buy something and an announcement comes out and the share gets taken out and you make 100% quickly - and you think you know what you're doing...  I think this is actually dangerous because then you think you know what you're doing and you start trading these shares."

 

"To me that is more like gambling.  Having said that, if you go back a year or just over a year to when the financial crisis hit, we took a view in the value team that there was no clear line of sight, lots of shares were trading way below their intrinsic value and we were accumulating those shares."

 

"We knew in some instances for example like Lonmin when you bought close to R100 - we knew there was a lot of bad news - they'd restructured their business, they have new management, platinum prices were down, the rand-dollar exchange rate was not in their favour and we knew that for the year they were going to make losses."

 

"But we accumulated because at R100 they were simply too cheap.  We looked at the assets they had on their balance sheet, the rationalisation that took place within the business, and we took a three to five year view that Lonmin was worth close to R250 and we bought lots of Lonmin at the time."

 

"Now you talk about these day traders and Warren Buffett saying it was a marathon and not a sprint - having said that, we bought lots of Lonmin in December and January and subsequently the platinum prices went up and things look slightly better.  In a couple of months time, by March/April the shares had doubled - so this global financial crisis (which was a one in 100 year event) totally unpredictable - is more like we sprinted, but we had a longer term view."


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Posted: 16 February 2010 - 1 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Trading

 

 

What drives prices?

 

 

user_uploads/What drives prices spp_shp.pdf

Look at these two broadly similar businesses – both fmcg retailers. Yes, the one has more franchisees’ skin in the game (Spar), and the other has expanded substantially into Africa. But isn’t the recent price action conferring a sweeter opening into Spar than Shoprite? Time will tell…


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Posted: 19 February 2010 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Trading

Some basic principles - outlined clearly...

 

 


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Posted: 2 March 2010 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Trading

A brief video, setting out the most prime tenets of the Dow Theory...

 


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Posted: 3 March 2010 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Trading

Another short video clip, with more on the Dow Theory...

 

Note that Charles Dow was working on this stuff around 1900, when the US was essentially a manufacturing economy, so his big validation test - looking for a direction in the Dow Industrials to be confirmed by a parallel move in the Dow Transportation index, made sense then. [See the letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders at

http://www.tickertalk.co.za/blog.php?user=leopold&blogentry_id=1766 

for Warren Buffet plugging his recent buy into BNSF rail - telling people to "come by train" to his meeting!] 

 

But please think about today - the US has become far more service based. How are services moved around? By train (as the big guys in the Dow Transport were in 1900)? Not only, but the courier companies are an interesting product of the servce era, as are the internet guys - so if you want the old Dow validation, maybe look at web traffic trends, and also perhaps UPS or Fedex company and industry data.

 

In South Africa, we have also evolved substantially into services, so again look at web data, look for courier volumes, and also for the likes of the N3 tollgate traffic counts. We have a modest manufacturing base, and our largest shares are still mineral export biased - so maybe also look for shipping market confirmation - an index like the Baltic Dry Index shows the rates for hauling stuff like iron ore across the ocean.

 

Cheers

 

 

 


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Posted: 11 June 2010 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Trading

OK - June 11 2010 has arrived, as dates inevitably do.

 

South Africa has enthused, especially these last weeks, and suddenly even structural negaholics are seeing that the soccer cup might be a soaring success, and the SA team might eclipse the expectations of their humble world ranking. Forein visitors are swarming cheerfully in touristy areas, and remember no-one has lost a match yet!

 

Sadly, Nelson Mandela lost a great-grandchild in a car crash after last nights Kick-Off concert at the Orlando Stadium, which seemed slick and a rousing success to fans asked afterwards. The concert was televised to many homes across the globe where knowledge (never mind prejudice) of South Africa is non-existent, and the coverage was heavily laden with pro-RSA imagery.

 

So, today on the markets, what bet to place? 

 

Well, 

Australia is ........ UP

Asia (NIkkei and Hang Seng) is ........ UP

Even BP is ........  UP

 

So, be long or stay on the side. And If our soccer team beats Mexico (or even scores and leads before market close at around halftime),  be longer!

 

Cheers

Stuart


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